Captain Rod's 2008 Kentucky Derby Analysis - Sports Posted by John C (Thursday May 01 2008 @ 10:39PM EDT)

Captain Rod's Analysis - Kentucky Derby 2008 One of my comments in this blog from last year's first Saturday in May was that it was the year of the synthetic track influence. Since that time, all of California went synthetic and a 3rd yr. old in this year's Derby set the 6f world record on one such synthetic surface. So now I say 2008 is really the year of the synthetic track influence. Yet I must confess I still don't know how this synthetic form translates to the concrete oval of ChurchHill Downs. The California trainers believe the synthetic to dirt move is an angle. My hunch is that the synthetic track form simply translates evenly, all else being equal. There are a few obvious exceptions such as Dominican from 2007 who seemed to hate dirt as much as he loved synthetic. Although there is only 1 line of supporting evidence, I believe Adriano is a similar anomaly. Yet Edgar Prado is passing up on 2 G1 stakes winners for the mount on Adriano, taking a cast of handicappers along with him. I am not on that bandwagon as I think that is a big mistake. I have also heard more than one person say that the Bluegrass should have a line drawn through it as it was polytrack. Obviously supporters of Pyro such as the esteemed Jerry Bailey beleive this to be true. Pyro was supposed to win. Yet he finished a dismal 10th and the overused excuse is that it was due to Polytrack. I am not buying it, and instead offer an alternative view. I think Todd Pletcher has a few tricks up his sleeve with his much lower 2 horse profile this year and the Bluegrass should not have that strike-through. If any race should have a line through it, perhaps, only it is the Ftn of Yth and only on Monba's PPs. The horse was pinched early, finished 39 lengths out, but needed throat surgery after that race and followed that with the G1 win - yeah, on Polytrack! Sidebar on Future Wagers: In Future Pool I, my picks were Colonel John and Giant Moon. Lucky for me, I never actually got the wagers in by the deadline. I did make 2 future plays in the 3rd pool and both are live. Unfortunately, I have low confidence in both now, particulary because they drew the 2 innermost posts. So I will have a minor rooting interest in Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man whose FP3 odds are now built-in saver bets. Since the advance edition of the free PP's was in alphabetical order, my analysis is in that order this year. 15) Adriano (Edgar Prador) - Dirt disaster in Fla, outclassed - pass 3) Anak Nakal (Rafael Bejarano) - Not much to like here - pass 20) Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux) - Monster in the making or this year's young stud failure? - What about his bad feet? - Had it or made it look too easy so far - Possible Triple Crown winner - Impressive works so they say - Randy Moss pace figures favor him over other speed - Oh my, didn't this post-draw add to the drama and start some second guessing. 7) Big Truck (Javier Castellano) - Mimicking the prep pattern of the previous year's winner doesn't translate to a win - pass 13) Bob Black Jack (Richard Migliore) - World record holder for 6f! - Figures to shake up early fractions - This year's Hard Spun - Can't play him to win - pass 10) Colonel John (Corey Nakatani) - I look in awe at the bloodlines. Sire TizNow best 10 furlong horse since Big Red. - Turkoman grandsire on dam side. - Good big field experience - slight edge. - Synthetic to dirt - Bred for distance - Looks to improve off last 2 - Big work Monday - Great post draw - 10-hole short wait 1) Cool Coal Man (Julien Leparoux) - Note: Ftn of Youth was hand-timed when teletimer malfunctioned - Inconsistency is of concern as well as horrific post draw - pass - Do connections really believe permanent rail-draw is a good things? 4) Court Vision (Garrett Gomez) - too slow? - pass 17) Cowboy Cal (John Velazquez) - Not much dirt form to go on - Pletcher being sneaky this week - Turf - synthentic - dirt angle - Might keep as my bomber - May look vulnerable late but his dad was the great classic distancer Giant's Causway 16) Denis of Cork (Calvin Borel) - Strongest work at CD - Last race was worst, no excuse - pass 5) Eight Belles, filly (Gabriel Saez) - Decent shot - notch below last year's monster gal, not the trainer's 1st choice - pass 19) Gayego (Mike Smith) - Strong last prep - Edge to Z Fortune - pass 14) Monba (Ramon Dominguez) - Note: flipped his palate and had throat surgery to prevent another displacement before Blue Grass win - Last to first with surgery in between - again check Pletcher's sleeves - Dismiss last in Fountain of Youth due to throat and problems on turn - Eclipsed last year's Blue Grass by almost 2 full seconds but doesn't show the big dirt form of last year's winner - Full fields 9) Pyro (Shaun Bridgmohan) - Even if you buy the notion of drawing a line through last his FG wins still don't impress me too much - I think it is over-hype - Concerned that Jerry Bailey is high on this horse - still pass 18) Recapturetheglory (E.T. Baird) - Not pressed much and set easy fractions in wire2wire - Similar trip highly doubtful - Three-digit beyer is actually noteworthy this year - If you like him you still have to take Big Brown - pass 12) Smooth Air (Manoel Cruz) - Not the easiest spot for first race outside Florida - Might deserve further look if rain comes (latest forecast 40% showers) - Outrun/outclassed by Big Brown - pass 2) Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa) - He looks like he needs a clean trip - unlikely in the field of 20 - Wood fractions killed War Pass but the time was slow - Big work Tuesday - reluctantly pass 8) Visionaire (Jose Lezcano) - Well-traveled - perhaps too well? - Bad work doesn't bode well - Couldn't overcome outside post draw at Kee - Everyone wants to draw a line through BlueGrass while I want to use Pletcher's race - With that said, he was 5th - pass 11) Z Humor (Rene Douglas) - Careful, don't get those 2 Z horses confused - the other is better - No more Mott/Bailey combos! - The Derby is a handicapping challenge due to field size. But the beauty of the Derby is that the distance is just too much for so many. This is a perfect example of a good horse who will falter in the final furlongs. - His only non-mainden score was a tie. - He is not improving by stretching or with experience - pass 6) Z Fortune (Robby Albarado) - Could be blossoming at just the right time. - Twenty pt. beyer jump - but more impressive is that he was 4-wide on both turns in the Ark - ran huge Conclusion: This is quite boring but my analysis of the form has led to only like 3 horses I like to potentially win this, 2 of which are the obvious favorites: 1) Big Brown 2) Colonel John 3) Z Fortune I couldn't find a way a to beat Big Brown with any confidence so I am on the Big Brown bandwagon. Because of the TizNow ancestry I give Colonel John the edge over Z Fortune. I suppose I will have various exotics centered on Big Brown and I may take a few windfall swags with Z Fortune on top. Both Pletcher horses will have some play in my mix. Cowboy Cal is my bomber. 4) Cowboy Cal 5) Monba Wanna lose $20. How about this crazy $1 superfecta: 6 / 17 /10 / ALL

< The Nine Commandments | post Derby 2008 thoughts >

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Friday May 02 2008 @ 07:35AM EDT)

I like your analysis but I think you're blinded by the Colonel's bloodline. Since 1998, the second place horse notched a sub-100 Beyers just once. Any guess what year that was? You got it: 2005 when Closing Argument finished behind the plodder Giacamo. Since 1998, the average Beyers for second place was 105.3. Colonel John's best Beyers to date is 95. A Beyers can't predict future results but it can eliminate some pretenders. I'll pass on the Colonel. After about ten hours of analysis I've drawn this conclusion: Big Brown is, like, totally awesome. He passed the final test when he met the media. It's Jeff's Test of Biological Abnormality. Horses like to run in packs. Humans want them to run ahead of all the other horses. If a horse busts free from the pack, all the other horses go, "Hey, whats up wid that asshole..." If I'm going to bet the chalk he better be an asshole or a ham. Smarty Jones was the latter. Based on his complete indifference to the media frenzy, I think Big Brown is pretty much of an asshole. In other words, he doesn't care what other horses think (or maybe he's retarded). Either way, I like Big Brown to win the Derby and to become Horse of the Year. (He blows the Belmont because nothing good happens in the Bush years). 1. Big Brown 2. Z Fortune 3. Smooth Air

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By Rock em Sock em (Friday May 02 2008 @ 09:24AM EDT) You know from my post last year I certainly look at Beyers. The Beyer par for 2nd is valid and obviously I am expecting my 2nd and 3rd choices to improve to those types of speed figs off their last in preps ala Barbaro. Clearly both will need to. Of course, this is also true for pretty much this whole field. No horse in 25 years had me inclined to book the Belmont bus before the Derby. Big Brown was the first. I am still wondering who your #2 pick is. It is either Z Humor or Z Fortune but certainly no Z Factor! :) Also, I am all about bloodlines this year. Try to find the race replay of the Breeder's Cup Classic for the first of TizNow's back-2-back wins and make note of the horse that finished second. [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Friday May 02 2008 @ 09:27AM EDT) LOL! Fixed it... [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 10:35AM EDT) I've changed my opinion on the Colonel. With all that speed immediately inside Big Brown, the pace could be very hot. In that case, I like a horse capable of the distance. CJ fits the bill. I worked him into my exotics. A fast pace early could turn this into a plodder's race. Consider Court Vision and Pyro - although the latter is not a true plodder. My wife has Pyro and Colonel John. I like her chances if the early pace is hot. [ reply | parent ]

By Captain Tom (Friday May 02 2008 @ 11:24AM EDT)

Captain Rod. Once again, I have to admire your analysis. But all you have to do is draw a line through Pyro's Blue Grass, and you'll have your winner. :)

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By MattC (Friday May 02 2008 @ 12:01PM EDT)

OK, I've made my pics and here is how I am betting. I know the entire horseracing world is waiting for last year's straight TRI winner to give his bets :) BOX TRI 20-9-18 BOX TRI 10-19-9 TRI 14-6-9 TRI 6-20-2 SUP 1-19-6-10 SUP 10-5-20-6

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By Cap'n Rod (Friday May 02 2008 @ 12:51PM EDT) Matt C, Next year can you remember to declare your wagers BEFORE I post my anaylsis. I see alot of 20/6/10's within these combinations and I am starting to wonder if I should get some commission from last year. [ reply | parent ]

By MattC (Friday May 02 2008 @ 01:28PM EDT) You want credit for naming favorites? :-P Regardless, commissions are paid at a brewery on Tuesday nights at the end of season! [ reply | parent ]

By JohnC (Friday May 02 2008 @ 05:08PM EDT) Hard Spun wasn't a favorite last year. I was was referring to commission from last year. This year my picks do lack imagination. Also, my 3rd, 4th, and 5th picks are far from favorites this year so there is some possible value there. [ reply | parent ]

By MattC (Friday May 02 2008 @ 05:25PM EDT) Was he the PA horse? I threw in a local horse, well, since he was local. The flawless MattC system. :) [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 10:47AM EDT) I thought Hard Spun was the third favorite horse. Street Sense and Curlin had similar odds at post time and Hard Spun was a little behind them around 10-1. No one was surprised that he placed. [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Friday May 02 2008 @ 01:14PM EDT)

Here's my pay-off-the-house TRI: 6-12-15 Z Fortune / Smooth Air / Adriano Unfortuantely, early money is falling on Z Fortune. He's down 12 14 points to 18 16. (Frankly, I won't be surprised to see him under 10 by post time).

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By Action Dan (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 07:39AM EDT) I have never passed on a bet. Pulled from my ass. I will break it down for you all 1. Big Brown 2. Pyro 3. Colonel John 4. Recapturetheglory 5. Cool Coal Man 6. Tale of Ekati 7. Z Fortune 8. Eight Belles 9. Monba 10. Visionare 11. Court Vision 12. Gayego 13. Anak Nakal 14. Z Humor 15. Cowboy Cal 16. Denis of Cork 17. Bob Black Jack 18. Smooth Air 19. Adriano 20. Big Truck [ reply | parent ]

By Flick of the Wrist (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 11:32AM EDT)

I think you forgot about Skat Daddy who had no chance to win but went off at $7.20 on the dollar. No BizLike showbiz and circulay quay also had similar odds to hard spun. On to this year...

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By Diana (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 01:59PM EDT)

Monz and I made several bets. And we are feeling pretty good about them. I know Cap'n Rod does not like Eight Belles or Anak Nakal- but I do, I'm a name kinda of gal so that is why I like these two horses- plus let's give the ladies a chance- Eight Belles you go girl!!

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By Flick of the Wrist (Saturday May 03 2008 @ 07:45PM EDT)

I placed the largest Derby win wager of my life today. Good timing on the gift I was given. Brown rhymes with Crown.

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By Captain Rod (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 11:21AM EDT)

My wife and sister-in-law have sworn off watching horse racing as the tragedy of Eight Belles was the last straw. I suppose I am more immune to this. I said she had a decent shot but passed because the trainer wanted to run in the Oaks.

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By Captain Rod (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 11:45AM EDT)

A marginal profit north of $200. Everyting front-loaded with Big Brown: $110 W 20 paid 374 net +264 $1 Tri KEY 20 over 2,6,10,14,16,17 net -30 $1 Exa str8 20 over same numbers above net -6 Bomber EBX $2 box 6,17 net -2

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By Ms Q (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 03:08PM EDT)

Fuck Horse Racing and the dumb fucks owners that exploit these beautiful animals for money. RIP Sweet Lady Eight Belles

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By Diana (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 03:39PM EDT)

Ms Q- your commments are a bit salty.

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By Captain Rod (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 09:16PM EDT)

A marginal profit north of $200. Everyting front-loaded with Big Brown: $110 W 20 paid 374 net +264 $1 Tri KEY 20 over 2,6,10,14,16,17 net -30 $1 Exa str8 20 over same numbers above net -6 Bomber EBX $2 box 6,17 net -2

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By Captain Rod (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 09:16PM EDT)

A marginal profit north of $200. Everyting front-loaded with Big Brown: $110 W 20 paid 374 net +264 $1 Tri KEY 20 over 2,6,10,14,16,17 net -30 $1 Exa str8 20 over same numbers above net -6 Bomber EBX $2 box 6,17 net -2

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By rod (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 09:33PM EDT)

Sorry for the re-posts, blackberry had same page up. blackberry fat-finger

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By john c (Sunday May 04 2008 @ 09:51PM EDT)

These beautiful animals wouldn't exist if not for the exploitation for money. For the thoroughbreds are bred to become race horses. In order to stop putting horses at risk you need to stop the breeding. There are many other no-risk uses for horses from pets to amish wagon leads. But nobody is going to breed or buy a thoroughbred for any of these purposes as the thoroughbred will have the instintive inclanation to run. There are far worse common actions that humans inflict on animals - such as people who crop their dogs ears.

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By MattC (Monday May 05 2008 @ 09:34AM EDT) Mmmmmmmmmmmm steak. [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Monday May 05 2008 @ 10:02AM EDT) I told her a *MILLION* times: No racing, no thoroughbreds. They're not dogs. You can't let a thoroughbred sleep on your old couch. And if horse racing ceases to exist, then all those millions of acres devoted to them will soon be replaced with strip malls and McMansions. [ reply | parent ]

By Cap'n Jeff Will Get You High (Monday May 05 2008 @ 10:20AM EDT)

This completely blows. I had 20-6-16 for $4.00. A minor typo would have scored me $6880.00. As it stands, I bet $34.00 to win 13.20. But that's a souvenir ticket that I don't intend to cash. As a result, I'm down $27.00 for the season.

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By JohnC (Monday May 05 2008 @ 05:08PM EDT)

Tell me about it. If the connections listen to the trainer and don't scratch her out of the Oaks, she catches softer/muddy track and less strenuous race, wins that race, and is alive today, and I hit both the EXA and the TRI due to the brilliant move of throwing out Pyro in favor of Tale of Ekati.

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By Johnc (Monday May 05 2008 @ 05:20PM EDT)

My uncashed souvenir tix will come on the first Saturday in June.

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