How much will it cost to rebuild Iraq? It depends on who you ask. Estimates range from 84 billion to 1.6 trillion US dollars. The Bush people place the cost at 20 billion per year for a period of five to six years. These are the people who estimated Iraqi sarin reserves at 500 tons. But for argument's sake, we'll grant that their calculation was based on reasonably reliable data this time. For reality's sake, we'll take their figure and triple it. I claim no nation-building cost-estimating expertise but of one thing I am certain: The Bush people are wrong. It will cost no less than 360 billion to rebuild Iraq.

The Administration has repeatedly stated that the American tax payer will not pay for reconstruction. That cost will be assumed by the conquered nation who will pay Republican campaign contributors with revenues generated by oil production. If we all die tomorrow, then this claim is accurate. But with no impending cometary impact on the horizon, it is necessary to check Mr. Bush's math.

Pre-war Iraqi oil production was just under 3 million barrels a day. Post-war looting has taken a toll, but Cheney believes Iraqi production will hit its pre-war levels by the end of the year. He's full of shit, triple that estimate. It will take eighteen months, not six.

The price of sweet Iraqi crude is just over US $30.00 per barrel. If that price holds, in eighteen months, the Iraqi oil industry will generate gross revenues of 32 billion dollars a year. So if the Iraqis can extract oil from the earth at absolutely no cost, the Administration is correct. Iraqi oil can support the entire cost of Republican party campaign contributions. For argument's sake, let's imagine Iraqi production costs will resemble the 12-15 USD costs enjoyed by OPEC nations. Given this technicality, the Iraqis are still clearing a cool 17.3 billion dollars a year.

With pencil in hand, all that is required of Mr. Bush to complete this exam is the subtraction of 20 billion reconstruction costs from 17.3 billion oil profit. "Let's see. Carry the one. No, no, no. Carry the ... Wait, wait. Laura! Where's my calculator? What?--I've got one on my laptop. Heh... Okay. 20,000,000,000 minus [that's the hyphen] 17,300,000,000 ... WTF?"

Bush is full of shit. He's not short 3.7 billion USD. Iraqi oil is going to fall 43.7 billion dollars short of reconstruction costs. Of course, I could be full of shit. The Bush administration's estimate may contain 3.7 billion dollars in padding. Perhaps he's right and I'm wrong. Just remember, I never claimed the Iraqis had 500 tons of mustard gas and 25,000 liters of anthrax.

And so it goes.